Strategic Foresight & Future Scenarios

Trump Can’t Take Greenland – and the World Knows Why

Any attempt by the United States to annex Greenland would collapse under its own contradictions. Washington cannot credibly defend Ukraine’s borders, threaten war over Taiwan’s sovereignty, and simultaneously flirt with territorial acquisition from a NATO ally. Such a move would not signal strength but moral exhaustion, eroding the very principles that give U.S. power global legitimacy. In a rules-based order the U.S. designed, restraint—not expansion—is what sustains leadership.

The Last Days of the Nation-State: How Corporations Are Building the Next Global Order

As governments falter under the weight of debt, disruption, and declining legitimacy, corporations are quietly stepping in—not just to influence the global order, but to construct a new one altogether. From private satellite constellations to platform-enforced speech, a corporate architecture of power is emerging with little democratic oversight. This dispatch traces the end of traditional sovereignty and the rise of algorithmic governance—and asks whether the public still governs the public sphere.

After The Strike: Why Trump’s Ceasefire Isn’t the Endgame

President Trump’s strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, followed by a surprise ceasefire, has jolted the global order—but it’s not the endgame. This is a high-stakes pause, not peace. The real test lies in converting military leverage into a lasting strategic framework. For Africa and the Global South, the episode signals a shift in U.S. power projection—swift, forceful, then restrained. If not followed by coherent diplomacy, it risks becoming just another spark in a volatile world.

Will Russia, Türkiye and China Back Iran?

As tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, Russia, Türkiye, and China face a critical test. Though all three condemn Israel’s strikes, none have offered military backing to Iran. Their strategic caution risks rendering their influence meaningless. A multilateral de-escalation strategy—through Astana Plus, BRICS diplomacy, and reconstruction planning—offers a peaceful path forward. The moment demands more than words; it demands coordinated action to avert a regional catastrophe.

Africa’s Strategic Position in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean Geopolitics: What’s really at stake as African coastal countries attract the world’s biggest powers?

Africa’s coastline is emerging as a geopolitical battleground where global powers vie for influence through strategic port access and dual-use infrastructure. From Djibouti to Lamu, African states must balance investment with sovereignty, transforming maritime assets into levers of power—not vulnerabilities—in the global contest shaping the Red Sea and Indian Ocean order.

Current Geopolitical Rivalries and Security Concerns for the United States

The United States faces geopolitical tensions, largely with Russia and China in the present day. Years after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the war remains to be resolved and there are debates within the U.S. on what the new role should be for the U.S. in providing aid to Ukraine.

President Tshisekedi’s National Address: Security, Resilience, and Action

For decades, the DRC has contended with insecurity largely driven by armed groups operating in its eastern provinces. One of the most concerning developments has been the resurgence of the March 23 Movement (M23), an armed group that first gained international prominence in 2012 when it briefly captured the city of Goma in North Kivu.

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