February 4, 2026 - The Sixteenth Council

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Durability Without Stability: Iran’s Unravelling Order

Iran enters 2026 in a condition of managed instability rather than imminent collapse. Sustained domestic unrest, economic contraction, and deepening legitimacy deficits have narrowed the regime’s strategic options, pushing it toward repression as a default mode of governance. While the state retains formidable coercive capacity, its margin for error is shrinking. Internal fragility now intersects with heightened regional risk, increasing the likelihood that external escalation becomes a tool of internal survival rather than deliberate strategy.

Hedging or Heading Away? The Quiet Drift of US Allies Toward China

US allies are quietly recalibrating their relationships with China, exploring economic and technological partnerships while maintaining security commitments to Washington. This hedging reflects pragmatic flexibility rather than outright abandonment, but signals a growing multipolar reality. Europe and Asia are diversifying trade, infrastructure, and tech ties with Beijing, testing limits of US influence. The trend highlights a critical choice for Washington: adapt to conditional loyalty and shared influence, or risk incremental erosion of its global primacy as allies hedge for security and opportunity

Negotiations and Tariff Threat of Ongoing US-Europe Territory Dispute

The US-Europe dispute over Greenland reflects a new era of geopolitically driven trade policy. President Trump’s threats of escalating tariffs aim to force European acquiescence, prompting discussions on Europe’s anti-coercion measures. NATO deployments to Greenland, debates over US missile defence, and concerns from Russia and China underscore the stakes. Failure to reach agreement risks severe economic disruption for Europe, particularly Germany, while US-EU trade faces uncertainty. The crisis signals that tariffs are increasingly a tool of strategic coercion rather than revenue generation.