Political shifts in South Africa following introduction of coalition government
South Africa has entered a new political era as the ANC loses its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994, forming a historic coalition government with the Democratic Alliance. This shift emphasizes negotiation, compromise, and multiparty consensus, reshaping domestic policy on land reform, economic inclusion, and social inequality. The coalition also complicates foreign policy, with internal ideological divisions affecting relations with the US, BRICS, and regional actors. Stability and effectiveness will depend on sustained collaboration amid domestic and geopolitical pressures.
Strategic Overview
South Africa currently faces an ongoing political shift as after entering a new stage in its democratic history, as for the first time since 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) lost its parliamentary majority. The party’s vote share fell by approximately 40 percent, representing its weakest electoral performance since the transition to democracy at the end of apartheid. The ANC has undergone significant changes in its political strategy following its May 2024 national election. This pivotal moment has forced the party to reconsider and adapt its approaches, leading to the formation of a new coalition government. The establishment of the Government of National Unity (GNU) marks the ANC’s pursuit of a multiparty coalition, a historic development in South African politics. This coalition, the first of its kind, signifies a fundamental shift away from ANC dominance.
The end of the ANC’s era as a single-party ruling entity has introduced new political dynamics and alliances within South Africa, with the current landscape increasingly characterised by negotiation, compromise, and consensus-building among diverse political actors.
Operational Context
Policy Debates and Legislative Efforts
Ongoing debates and legislative initiatives are addressing critical issues such as property rights and land reform. Notably, the Expropriation Act has provoked controversy by granting the state powers to expropriate private land without compensation under certain circumstances, raising significant concerns regarding property rights.
Addressing Economic and Social Inequalities
Economic inequality remains a pressing issue in South Africa. The decline in the ANC’s popularity has been primarily attributed to widespread public dissatisfaction with their handling of issues such as corruption, persistently high unemployment rates, poverty, and broader economic challenges. Despite meaningful progress over recent decades, deep economic and spatial inequalities rooted in the apartheid era continue to shape the country’s social fabric. These disparities are closely linked to the rights and welfare of refugees and asylum seekers, who often encounter barriers in accessing essential services.
Policy proposals aimed at addressing these challenges include replacing the ‘Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment’ (B-BBEE) policy with a more inclusive ‘Economic Inclusion For All Bill’, designed to better support small businesses and disadvantaged communities. Additionally, there is a strong emphasis on job creation through enhanced public spending, investment in infrastructure development, and the growth of both urban and private sector economies.
Geopolitical Tensions
The introduction of the elected coalition government has heightened geopolitical tensions in the region. The internal ideological divisions between its main parties’- the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA)- positions regarding foreign policy and domestic racial redress policies create international tensions in central aspects of policy.
East vs. West: Where the DA aligns well with Western liberal values and prioritises a social market economy, the ANC traditionally favours a non-aligned stance that prioritises relations with the Global South and BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), often challenging Western rhetoric and influence. With parties on both sides of the East-West divide, cohesive foreign policy is a challenging process for the current coalition.
US Relations: US sanctions and new barriers to trade have escalated tensions between the US and South Africa. The current US administration has cited racial discrimination as cause to halt aid, alongside the introduction of 30% tariffs on South African imports and its exclusion from the 2026 G20 summit. South Africa’s foreign policy stances on critical geopolitical conflicts- such as their support for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, and initiation of a genocide case against Israel in the International Court of Justice- have also gardened critique from the US.
Regional Conflict: South Africa currently navigates challenging regional dynamics, such as the ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). As one of many nations enmeshed in resolving the crisis, South Africa’s efforts to broker a peace deal in the DRC became precarious as regional fractures deepened due to contrasting national interests. Rwanda’s hardline position in the conflict has challenged South Africa’s objective to secure a position of continental leadership and influence, hampering unified response.
Strategic Outlook
The new GNU coalitions’ stability and effectiveness now depend on collaboration and compromise between multiple parties, each bringing their own ideologies to the table. This change presents opportunities for democratic cooperation, encouraging policy compromise and consensus building, ensuring accountability and a balance of power. There are, however, strong concerns for the maintenance of political stability and balance as the coalition government finds its footing. The long-term durability of the coalition remains uncertain amid regional tensions and disagreement over foreign policy approach.
Niamh Allen, Global Policy Intelligence Unit of the Sixteenth Council
