Electoral Uncertainty in Latin America

Strategic Overview

The Latin American region is currently in the midst of significant political uncertainty, driven by a series of recent and forthcoming elections taking place over the late-2025 to 2026 period. These are anticipated to trigger national transformations in leadership and political ideology, potentially heralding pivotal changes in both the political and economic landscape of the region. 

There are widespread expectations that Latin America may experience a shift away from left-leaning governments towards more centrist, market-oriented administrations. Political fatigue and dissatisfaction with high economic inequality have given rise to growing right-wing populist sentiments in the region, which comes as part of a wider global right-wing movement in recent years. Such a transition presents new opportunities for reform and increased investment throughout the region, alongside greater uncertainties regarding policy volatility and social unrest due to increased political polarisation. 

Operational Context: Key Elections

Completed & Ongoing Elections:

Bolivia: In August 2025, Bolivia held general elections to select a new president, vice president, and all members of the Plurinational Legislative Assembly. The Christian Democratic Party (CDP) emerged victorious, marking the end of two decades dominated by the Movement for Socialism (MAS), which faced near-total losses as a party. The anticipated right-wing presidential victory signals a significant ideological shift for the country, with movement towards a decentralised capitalist approach to economic reform amid ongoing economic crisis. 

Argentina: Argentina commenced the Latin American electoral season with its midterm elections in October 2025, renewing half of the deputies and a third of the senators. For President Milei, securing robust results in these elections is critical for advancing his agenda of austerity based structural reforms aimed at addressing longstanding economic and political challenges. President Milei led the La Libertad Avanza party to a landslide victory, set to push ahead with his programme to cut state spending and deregulate the economy. 

Chile: Chile began presidential elections in November 2025, in which voters will choose a new president, renew half of the Senate, and replace the entire lower house of Congress. Prior polls indicate a preference among voters for political moderation and stability, with expectations of gains for centre-right opposition parties. As no presidential candidate secured an absolute majority in the first round, an upcoming runoff election is scheduled. Right-leaning parties made up roughly 70% of the first round; more market friendly initiatives can be expected under a right-party win.

Honduras: General elections also began in Honduras in November 2025. Despite a history of political hyperpolarization, no major political shifts are expected. Concerns do however persist regarding military neutrality and allegations of electoral fraud; these issues threaten public trust and undermine the strength and stability of Honduras’s political institutions. So far the Honduran centrist party holds a narrow lead in the presidential race, although final results have not yet been published after the voting count was disrupted. 

Upcoming Elections:

Costa Rica: Costa Rica’s general elections are scheduled for February 2026. As the election approaches, uncertainty dominates the electorate, with recent polls revealing that more than half of voters remain undecided regarding their choice for president. The country is characterised by democratic stability, with a multiparty political system and regular rotations of power. 

Peru: Peru will hold presidential elections in April 2026, alongside congressional elections. Notably, this will involve the election of a bicameral congress for the first time since 1993, a development expected to enhance political stability. Current political priorities include combating corruption, improving citizen security, and strengthening democratic institutions, as well as boosting economic growth and addressing social inequalities. 

Colombia: Colombia’s presidential elections are set for May 2026. A change in government appears likely, driven partly by constitutional term limits that prevent re-election and partly by the perceived lack of legislative strength of President Petro’s party. Economic challenges and controversial reforms have further eroded public confidence, making a transition probable. 

Brazil: Brazil will hold presidential elections in October 2026, alongside elections for the entire lower house of Congress, two-thirds of the Senate, and more than half of the governorships. President Lula has announced his intention to seek a fourth term and remains a popular candidate. In the run-up to the elections, economic issues such as inflation and currency depreciation are prominent, with fiscal uncertainty shaping candidates’ campaign promises regarding the country’s economic trajectory.

Geopolitical Tensions

Global Power Pressure:

Geopolitical tensions in Latin America stem from increased competition between global powers like the US and China for regional influence. China has become the largest sovereign lender in the region and is heavily investing in critical resources like lithium, essential for electric vehicles and technology. This has prompted concerns about growing economic and political dependence on Beijing. Military action and trade disputes by the US, affecting countries like Cuba, Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil, pose additional challenges for managing sovereignty and trade. Caught in the crosshairs of China and the US’s economic rivalry, the region must balance foreign influence and access to strategic minerals with critical trade and infrastructure investment and development. 

Regional Tensions:

This is exacerbated by long-standing, but intensifying, inter-state disputes, rising economic instability, and the growing influence of non-traditional threats like maritime domain challenges to sovereignty. Border disputes persist between countries such as Venezuela and Guyana, or Nicaragua and Colombia, resulting in bilateral tensions. These strained diplomatic relations present issues for transnational cooperation, placing pressure on supply chains and causing financial market instability, affecting regional economic growth. 

Strategic Outlook

Anticipated Rightward Political Shift:

During the late 1990s to early 2000s, Latin America experienced a ‘pink tide’ of left-wing governments. This left-leaning upswing reinforced social protections and expanded welfare services in response to massive societal mobilisation against dictatorship and rising austerity measures. A more recent resurgence in the late 2010s and early 2020s further emphasised environmental protection, social welfare concerns, and democratic reform. 

However, economic headwinds, increased polarisation, and a lack of political cohesion mean current expectations point towards a rightward political shift across Latin America in the coming year. According to GIS reports, this emerging trend has the potential to reshape the regions political landscape, and “could mark a new direction for the region, as polls indicate that left-wing candidates belonging to the Sao Paulo Forum (FSP) are likely to face defeat”. (The FSP, a coalition aimed at uniting the leftist movement in Latin America, currently holds power in eleven governments across the region.)

Implications for Political and Economic Policy:

As Latin America navigates the competing influences of global powers and fiscal pressures amid a busy electoral schedule, the outlook for political and economic policy is increasingly disintegrated. The anticipated resurgence of right-wing economic priorities is expected to drive substantial economic reform, including fiscal consolidation, structural reforms to boost productivity, and more strategic industrial policies focused on market expansion into high-value sectors. 

Social Uncertainties:

Latin America continues to grapple with significant social challenges that undermine regional stability and development. Chief among these issues are persistently high levels of inequality and poverty, which have left large segments of the population without access to adequate resources, services, or opportunities for upward mobility. These socio-economic disparities are further compounded by high levels of crime and violence, and an informal labour market with limited social protection. 

In the context of the recent right-wing shift, increased polarisation and entrenched socialist interests reflect resistance from leftist factions keen to preserve the social gains made during previous decades. This political and ideological rightwards transition raises concerns about potential threats to democratic norms and the future of social welfare in the region.

Niamh Allen is a GPIU Fellow at the Sixteenth Council