Zuma is Back! Will He Rescue or Ruin the ANC?

In recent years, South Africa’s political landscape has experienced significant upheaval, with former President Jacob Zuma playing a central role. Despite facing numerous political and legal challenges, Zuma has emerged as a key player, exerting considerable influence over the country’s future. With the African National Congress (ANC) losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid, the question arises: Will Zuma assist his former party through a coalition or continue to oppose it?

Zuma has emerged as a key player, exerting considerable influence over the country’s future.

Zuma’s Rise and Fall: A Legacy of Controversy

Jacob Zuma, a South African politician, served as the president of South Africa from 2009 to 2018 and as the president of the African National Congress (ANC) from 2007 to 2017. Born on April 12, 1942, Zuma became an anti-apartheid activist and spent ten years as a political prisoner on Robben Island.

During his presidency, Zuma faced allegations of corruption and state capture, resulting in multiple corruption charges against him. His corruption trial is scheduled for the future. In December 2023, Zuma backed the newly formed MK party, accusing the ANC and President Cyril Ramaphosa of betrayal, leading to his suspension by the ANC in January 2024.

The MK Party’s Surge: A Threat to ANC’s Dominance

In the 2024 elections, the MK Party, led by Jacob Zuma, secured 15% of the national vote and 45% in Zuma’s stronghold, eroding the ANC’s support to just 40%. As a result, the ANC is seeking coalition partners to maintain governance.

1. The Rise of the MK Party:

   – Founded by former members of the ANC’s armed wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe, the MK Party gained attention in recent years by exploiting discontent over corruption scandals.

   – Jacob Zuma’s charisma and rapport with the masses played a pivotal role in its surge, weakening the ANC’s support.

2. Erosion of ANC Support:

   – Internal divisions and corruption allegations have gradually undermined the ANC’s authority, fostering disillusionment among its base.

   – The emergence of the MK Party as a credible alternative further exacerbated the ANC’s decline.

3. ANC’s Search for Coalition Partners:

   – Confronted with diminishing support, the ANC is seeking coalition partners to sustain governance amid intricate political dynamics and ideological competition.

The MK Party’s upsurge in the 2024 elections has rattled the ANC’s dominance in South African politics. Under Jacob Zuma’s leadership, it capitalised on disillusionment, corroding the ANC’s support base. As the ANC pursues coalition partners, the political landscape remains uncertain, shaping the nation’s trajectory.

Coalition Dilemmas: Potential Allies and Rivals

Faced with a precarious position, the ANC must navigate the tricky terrain of coalition politics. The MK party, despite ruling out collaboration during the campaign, could be a crucial partner. However, this alliance could mean reinstating Zuma into a significant governmental role, despite his court-imposed disqualification from parliamentary membership. Other potential allies include the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), known for their radical economic policies. Yet, any coalition with the MK party or the EFF comes with the challenge of significant ideological concessions and internal discord.

Allegations of Electoral Irregularities in South Africa Election

The MK party in South Africa has called for a revote, citing widespread irregularities. Former President Jacob Zuma, who leads the MK party, has submitted evidence to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) to support these claims.

According to the MK party, an IT company involved in the electoral process manipulated votes to favour specific parties. They allege that these irregularities have affected the outcome of the election and are calling for a revote to ensure a fair process.

The allegations are currently under investigation by the IEC, and no official findings have been released yet. The IEC has confirmed that it will announce the election results as planned and is aware of the allegations made by the MK party.

Zuma’s Objectives and Leverage in Coalition Talks

Former President Jacob Zuma’s objectives in the ongoing coalition talks are twofold. Firstly, he aims to replace President Cyril Ramaphosa with a more favourable leader within the African National Congress (ANC). Secondly, Zuma seeks to protect his legacy and maintain his political influence. He may push for the enactment of policies he supports, such as nationalisation and free education. Zuma’s leverage in the coalition talks comes from the substantial support his MK party received in the elections.

It’s important to note that these objectives and speculations are based on analysts’ assessments of the political landscape. The situation is dynamic, and further developments may shape Zuma’s endgame.

Potential Pardons and Constitutional Changes

The MK party is demanding a presidential pardon for Jacob Zuma as a condition in coalition negotiations. This would give him immunity from legal repercussions and allow him to make a political comeback. They also want significant constitutional amendments to reshape South Africa’s political and economic landscape.

Granting amnesty or pardons to Zuma and other offenders has sparked debate in South Africa, but the legal feasibility and desirability of such amnesty are separate considerations.

Violence and Stability: The MK Party’s Stance

Amidst high-stakes negotiations, the MK party has emphasised a commitment to a non-violent, politically tolerant approach. Despite tensions and inflammatory rhetoric, the party seeks to resolve disputes through legal and political channels, emphasising restraint.

The MK party has positioned itself as a political force dedicated to unity, positive change, and shaping a brighter future for all. While the party has faced criticism and legal challenges over its use of the name, it has gained prominence under the influence of Jacob Zuma.

Conclusion

Jacob Zuma’s return to the political stage has significantly impacted South Africa’s political landscape. As the ANC grapples with the loss of its parliamentary majority, Zuma’s strategic manoeuvres and the decisions made in coalition negotiations will shape the stability and future trajectory of South African politics. Whether Zuma will rescue or ruin the ANC remains to be seen, but his actions will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the nation’s direction.

Aric Jabari is a Fellow at the Sixteenth Council