Assessing the Imminent Chinese Threat: Context Behind U.S. Defence Secretary’s Shangri-La Remarks

The recently concluded Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual Asian defence summit addressing security issues of the Asia-Pacific region, was held in Singapore from May 30 to June 1, 2025. A speech delivered by the U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, particularly his remarks on China, grabbed a lot of attention. Describing Chinese aggression as the worst military challenge the U.S. has faced since World War II, he urged allies to build up their defence resources and join the U.S.’s efforts in securing the Asia Pacific. Notable statements by Hegseth on China included the following observations:

• On China’s Threat to Regional Security:

“China represents the most comprehensive national security challenge we’ve faced since World War II.”

“Beijing is not just preparing for war; it is rehearsing one — against Taiwan.”

“The stakes in the Indo-Pacific are global. What happens here affects the entire international order.”

• On Taiwan:

“We are rapidly approaching a tipping point. The Chinese Communist Party is accelerating its timeline for potential aggression against Taiwan — possibly before 2027.”

“Make no mistake: The United States stands with Taiwan, and we will not allow coercion or force to determine its future.”

• On Deterrence and U.S. Policy:

“Peace through strength is not a slogan; it’s a necessity. Deterrence only works if it is credible, visible, and unwavering.”

“We do not seek conflict with China — but we are prepared for one if necessary. Our goal is to prevent war, not provoke it.”

• On Allied Responsibility:

“The burden of security cannot fall on Washington alone. Every nation that values sovereignty and peace must invest in its own defence.”

“The Indo-Pacific is not a chessboard for great power rivalry — it is home to billions who deserve stability, freedom, and prosperity.”

• On China’s Global Conduct:

“From the Himalayas to the South China Sea, China has used intimidation, economic leverage, and military expansion to impose its will. This cannot be normalised.”

When Hegseth urged the U.S.’s allies in Asia to ramp up their defence budgets to match American commitments in the region, it echoed a similar sentiment to what President Donald Trump has expressed towards NATO allies not spending enough on their security needs in the European region. It is worthwhile to note that China has increasingly been seen as an aggressive and ambitious power in the Asian region who takes up military intimidation, territorial encroachment and economic retaliation to assert itself upon smaller states. The examples below elaborate upon this Chinese ‘threat’, particularly in contested waters and border areas:

• South China Sea Militarisation

A strategically vital region due to its large volume of maritime trade and oil and natural gas resources, the South China Sea is a contested territory for many states. Not only China, but also Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan have laid claims to different areas in the South China Sea. Though China’s claim, resting on the disputed ‘Nine-Dash Line’, was found to have no legal basis by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague in 2016, China had began a large-scale land reclamation in the region in 2013. Its growing assertiveness manifested itself in the Spratly Islands, as China dredged sand onto reefs and rocks. Another example is the Fiery Cross Reef, where China built a large military outpost with a 3,000-metre airstrip, radars, and missile shelters. It was the Subi and the Mischief Reefs that China equipped with missile systems and airstrips, as it also put in place military equipment on these outposts, including surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, and jamming equipment. These are now permanent military facilities.

Several instances of the Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia aggressively targeting Vietnamese and Filipino vessels have also been reported in the South China Sea. In April 2023, the Philippine Coast Guard reported that a Chinese ship aimed a military-grade laser at its vessel near Second Thomas Shoal, temporarily blinding crew members. There have been instances of water cannon use, blocking manoeuvres, and aggressive shadowing of civilian resupply or fishing vessels routinely carried out by China upon other states.

• Claim over Taiwan

Perhaps one of the greatest examples of Chinese territorial ambitions is its claim over Taiwan. Though Taiwan has never been governed by China, yet China considers it to be a breakaway province that it seeks to ‘peacefully reunite’, but seems determined to resort to force, if necessary.

China amped up military pressure in Taiwan Straits and launched its largest-ever military exercises around Taiwan, following the U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit in August 2022. It included firing 11 ballistic missiles, five of which landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone. China also undertook simulated amphibious landings and crossed the previously respected unofficial boundary to the Taiwan Straits known as the median line, through the channels of water and air.

China has been known to routinely make incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), an area beyond the national airspace of a state to monitor foreign aircrafts for the purposes of national security. On October 4, 2021, a record 56 Chinese aircraft entered Taiwan’s ADIZ in one day. Apart from air and maritime intimidation, China also employs coercive gray-zone tactics like cyberattacks on Taiwan’s government websites and infrastructure, spreading disinformation to stir public distrust against Taiwan’s democratic institutions, and restricting Taiwanese exports to China in response to unfavourable political developments.

• India-China Border Clashes

India and China have several key flashpoints in their shared 2,100-mile border, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Both states have different perceptions of the LAC as it is not clearly demarcated with territories in Ladakh (Galwan Valley, Pangong Lake, and Depsang Plains) and Arunachal Pradesh (Tawang) being contested sites witnessing frequent standoffs.

Headlines were made in 2017 in Doklam when Chinese troops began building a road in a territory which Bhutan claims to be its own. The crisis continued for 73 days as Indian troops, on behalf of Bhutan, intervened to stop the incursion. The stand-off was considered a major escalation in bilateral relations. Another major incident that disrupted peace of 45 years between the two states occurred in the Galwan Valley in June 2020, where a violent confrontation in the form of brutal hand-to-hand combat proved fatal to several soldiers on both sides. In another alarming act of aggression in December 2022, Chinese soldiers tried to unilaterally ‘change the status quo’ at the Line of Actual Control in Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh by crossing over to Indian territory. As Indian troops retaliated, both sides suffered injuries. At present, both states have military buildup along the LAC and have frequent face-offs during patrols in Eastern Ladakh.

• East China Sea

The Senkaku Islands (called Diaoyu Islands by China) are a group of islets in the East China Sea. Japan administers the uninhabited islands that are claimed by China to be a part of its territory since ancient times. In 2013, China declared an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over much of the East China Sea, including the Senkaku Islands, a claim that has not been accepted by Japan. These strategically significant islands have become sites of contestation as China regularly sends Coast Guard ships and aircraft into its territorial zone. China also frequently sends in fighter jets, bombers, and surveillance aircraft in the East China Sea near the Japanese airspace which leads to hundreds of scrambles between both states every year. For instance, in 2021, Chinese vessels were reported to be present in the contiguous zone near the islands over 300 times.

• West Philippine Sea

Parts of the South China Sea that falls within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines is referred to by the state as West Philippine Sea and it includes Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal — a claim that is not accepted by China. The 2016 ruling from the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague on ‘Nine Dash Line’ has ruled out any legal basis for China to enforce its physical presence to undermine Filipino activities in the region. Yet, in the ongoing conflict, several acts have been committed by China to maintain its constant presence, seize territory and prevent Filipino access. This resulted in the Scarborough Shoal standoff in 2012 where Chinese fishing vessels entered the area and were apprehended by the Philippine leading to a stalemate. Another area within the Philippines’ EEZ known as the Second Thomas Shoal has been a site of disruption by China with intense instances of Chinese Coast Guard blocking Filipino resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era ship intentionally grounded in 1999 serving as an outpost. In February 2023, a Chinese vessel targeted a Philippine Coast Guard ship with a military-grade laser, temporarily blinding the crew. In 2024, Chinese vessels were seen using cutting tools to damage Filipino boats and equipment.

The counter argument that China often uses against such accusations of coercion for political gains is that it has a historical claim to territory in Asia, while it is the external powers like the U.S. which are interfering in its regional affairs and antagonising China. China maintains that it stands for a peaceful rise and that its military growth is commensurate with its economic growth.

What comes next?

While the relations between the U.S. and China are going through a tense period at present, the metric rise of China has also been to the discomfort of its smaller neighbours. Several Asian states have been either vocally critical of China’s foreign policies and territorial aggression, or are intimidated into being defensive and cautious in their dealings with China. Examples of Chinese territorial aggressions are rampant in the regions of the South China Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan, and shared border areas with India and Bhutan, as well as its strategic manoeuvres in cyberspace and outer space that are new spheres ripe for China to assert its strategic superiority. These actions reflect a pattern of regional assertiveness that is threatening towards the sovereignty and security of other states. If left unchecked, these behaviours could escalate into larger confrontations in coming times that demand serious attention and coordinated response from the Asia Pacific.

Dr. Shivani Yadav is a non-resident research fellow at the America Program of the Sixteenth Council