Global Threat Report Evaluates National Security Challenges Facing Trump Administration

With an aim to analyse global developments and their impact on the security environment of the United States, the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) publishes a ‘Worldwide Threat Assessment’ report every year, which focusses on military and defence-related intelligence to assess the national security landscape. Additionally, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) publishes the ‘Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community’ report, addressing an array of threats that affect homeland security, citizens, industries and corporations, health and safety, and military power of the U.S. in the world. Both assessments are presented during congressional hearings, where intelligence leaders testify on the range of threats pertaining to national security and international stability.

Overview of Key Global Threats

The 2025 threat assessment report acknowledges the far-reaching implications of modern technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, quantum sciences, microelectronics, cyber tools, and unmanned systems on the current global power structure. While these advanced technologies are strengthening the military capacity of states, yet they are also weaking overall global security by enabling transnational criminal organisations, terrorist groups and foreign intelligence services as well.

A noteworthy takeaway from the report is the identification of major adversaries of the U.S. – namely China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – and also the alarming fact that they seem to be joining forces against the U.S. by increasingly coordinating intelligence, military technology, diplomatic support, joint exercises, and arms trading. As the report notes:

“Our adversaries are deepening cooperation, often lending military, diplomatic, and economic support to each other’s conflicts and operations, to circumvent U.S. instruments of power.”

Evolving Threats to Homeland and Border Security

Missile and Unmanned Aerial Threats

In a departure from last year’s assessment, the 2025 report features a section on homeland and border security. A significant threat to homeland security arises from long-range missile systems, especially as China, Russia and North Korea continue to field long-range missile systems, including Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles and cruise missiles.

Unmanned systems and drones further complicate security as they are increasingly used for surveillance, payload delivery, and intelligence collection. What makes the risk worse is that they are widely available, inexpensive, hard to detect, and easy to operate. It is the anonymity of their use that makes attribution and deterrence difficult.

Terrorism

Terrorism is a persistent global threat as organised groups like ISIS and Al-Qa’ida remain resilient. Though they have changed their organisational structures to become more decentralised and fragmented, yet they keep exploiting ongoing global conflicts to maintain their networks, funding, and recruitment. The report warns:

“Over the next year, ISIS probably will try to conduct high profile attacks in the West…”

Illegal Migration and Border Security

Illegal migration has been an ongoing issue, especially along the Southern border of the U.S., which can be attributed to poor socio-economic conditions in Central and Southern America. The migrants are a vulnerable group that can be exploited for illegal activities by criminal gangs for organised crime. This puts a strain on American border resources, as cartels and drug traffickers operate in the U.S. from across the border, especially along the Southwest border controlled by Mexican networks. Infusion of fentanyl and synthetic opioids into U.S. markets remain a top concern.

Major State Adversaries and Their Strategic Postures

China

• Military Modernisation and Spending
  
  – 5.2% increase in its official defence budget in 2025.

– Estimated total defence spending between $304B and $377B, including research, development and subsidies.

– Modernising across all domains: air, naval, cyber, and strategic missile forces.

• Nuclear Capabilities
  
  

– Expanding warhead stockpile and delivery systems.
– Operational nuclear warheads on track to increase from 600 to 1000 by 2030.

– Building new missile silos and diversifying deterrence posture.

• Space and Counterspace Capabilities

– Preparing to launch satellites as megaconstellations.

– Testing ASAT or Anti-Satellite Weapons (designed to disable satellites in orbit).

– Developing jamming and directed-energy weapons (ranged weapons that damage targets with highly focussed energy without a solid projectile).

• Cyberspace Capabilities

– Conducting cyber espionage against the U.S. defence, technology, and infrastructure.

– Targeting academic, economic, military, and political targets.

• Taiwan and South China Sea

– Increasing military pressure on Taiwan

– Construction and militarisation of islands in disputed waters.

• Global Military Operations

– Expanding overseas bases (e.g. Djibouti), deploying naval forces farther from home.

– Conducted a scripted exercise in Tanzania with more than 1000 troops.

– Engaging in military diplomacy and influence operations.

– Probable new military facilities are upcoming in newer territories.

Russia

• Trajectory of Russia’s War in Ukraine

– Lost about 10,000 ground combat vehicles and more than 700,000 personnel during the war.

– Using asymmetric tactics.
– Targeting critical Ukraine infrastructure with a combination of one-way attack unmanned aerial vehicle (UAVs).

• Military Capabilities and Modernisation

– Increased defence spending by 19 percent ($150 billion)

– Upgrade strategic forces and hypersonics, despite sanctions.

– Maintaining a resilient defence industry with foreign support.

• Cyberspace Capabilities

– State sanctioned cyber-attacks on Ukraine, Western states, and their infrastructure.

– Uses disinformation against adversaries to influence operations.

• Space and Counterspace Capabilities
  – Developing an arsenal of non-nuclear counterspace weapons (lasers, a ground-launched antisatellite missile, and electronic warfare systems).

– Likely continuing ASAT weapon development.

– Investing in space-based ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance).

• WMD Capabilities

– Maintaining about 1,550 deployed strategic and up to 2,000 non-strategic warheads.

– Uses strategic ambiguity for deterrence.

• Destabilisation Campaign

– Political interference in global crises.

– Supports coups, mercenaries (e.g. Wagner group in Africa), and propaganda.

• Global Presence

– Engagements in Belarus, Caucasus Region, Central Asia and Africa.

– Expanding military presence in the Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, and Indian Ocean regions.

– Uses military and paramilitary means for influence.

Iran and its Proxy Forces

• Iranian Military Activity

– Shifted from indirect to direct retaliation against Israel.

– Launched two major missile and UAV strikes on Israel (April and October 2024), with 200–300 munitions each.

– Building missiles, UAV, and naval capabilities.

– Continuing arms support to Hizballah, Iraqi militias, Syrian militants, and the Huthis.

– Threatening U.S. and allies in the Gulf, and the Strait of Hormuz.

• WMD Capabilities

– Developing nuclear programme under international scrutiny.

– Advancing centrifuges and enrichment technologies.

– Supplying arms, funds, training to regional proxies to destabilise Lebanon, Israel, and Yemen.

North Korea

• Military Capabilities and Modernisation

– Continuing missile testing and military development under sanctions.

– Enhancing artillery and special operations forces.

• Missile Development and WMD

– Expanding ICBM, SLBM capabilities, including miniaturisation of nuclear warheads.

– Launched one ICBM, its largest solid-propellant system, and largest-ever salvo launch, simultaneously firing 18 short-range ballistic missiles.

• Space and Cyberspace Capabilities

– Satellite launches and potential ASAT ambition.

– Receiving Russian aid in space programme, Space Launch Vehicles (SLVs), satellites, and training.

– Cyber theft and targeting crypto currency provide major income streams.

Regional Security Landscapes

Latin America

Regional instability and security challenges are plaguing several states in the Latin American region at present. Haiti, Colombia and Ecuador are facing extreme violence from armed groups. Faced with a severe socio-economic crisis, states like Cuba have turned to seek assistance and cooperation from Russia, China and Iran. In fact, there is an overall increase in outreach by China and Russia within the region as they are building on their economic, military, and diplomatic influence through infrastructure projects and arms deals.

Southeast Asia

Most states in this region seem concerned about getting embroiled in great power politics if they are forced to choose between the U.S., China and Russia. Hence, they seem to be taking a neutral approach to the global crisis involving major powers. Maritime tensions and China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea is testing regional stability and raising the risk of an impending conflict.

South Asia

Islamist insurgencies, border disputes and political unrest have marked South Asian politics in recent times. Taliban rule in Afghanistan affects regional security, and while the Talibani government is gaining de facto recognition with regional partners, there are lingering concerns about human rights violations. Another important South Asian state, India, is focussing on strengthening its global leadership, for which it is actively engaging in multilateral forums like the Quad, BRICS ((Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation), and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). India is also strengthening bilateral and trilateral defence partnerships in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific, while continuing to build its own military capabilities.Border tensions with China and Pakistan continue for India, with China as the main adversary and Pakistan as a secondary threat. India is focussing on indigenous military modernisation. Despite recently reducing defence purchases from Russia, the strategic partnership between India and Russia seems strong. Pakistan, a South Asian nuclear state with internal instability, is embroiled in cross-border skirmishes with its neighbours. The focus of Pakistan’s military modernisation is India, which it considers to be an existential threat. Triangulating the security situation, Pakistan is receiving a bulk of its international economic aid and military training from China.

Middle East

Regional partners of the U.S. in the Middle East are hedging and cautiously balancing relations with Russia and China because of their continuing mutual economic and technological engagements. The interim government in Syria wishes to engage the West, but is facing severe socio-economic challenges of its own and struggling to unite the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and fractious opposition groups. Syria and Iraq continue their fight against ISIS, and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) want continued U.S. support, especially in airpower and logistics. Meanwhile, a regional adversary of the U.S. is Iran, whose state-backed militias launched over 200 attacks on American and coalition forces, and over 250 strikes on Israel since October 2023. These attacks have been mostly ineffective but killed 3 U.S. soldiers in Jordan and 2 Israeli soldiers.

Africa

Economic instability and humanitarian crises in many states of Africa pose a threat to American interests in Africa, especially as many African states have recently expanded security relations with China. 53 African nations attended the China-Africa Cooperation Forum in Beijing in 2024. Over 6,100 ISIS and Al-Qa’ida attacks occurred in Africa in 2024 showing continued instability and inadequate regional counterterrorism capabilities.

The Polar Regions

The Arctic region is an example where the competitors of the U.S. are collaborating and expanding their influence, while posing a challenge to international norms and restricting Western access. Russia already regards the Arctic as a core strategic domain and maintains a strong military presence. Now, China is also pushing for normalising its presence in the Arctic and the Antarctic to gain economic, scientific, and military advantage in these regions over the West.

Conclusion

The 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment outlines a global security environment that is unpredictable and unstable, especially due to technological advancements and increased strategic competition. Major adversaries of the U.S., namely China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are modernising their militaries, and are also teaming together to project power in ways that challenge American influence around the world. Meanwhile, transnational threats like terrorism, organised crime, and political unrest across regions like Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East demand adaptive foreign policy responses by the U.S. For the Trump administration, these challenges call for a reassessment of foreign policy strategies to retain its global influence in a world that is becoming increasingly more volatile and contested.

Dr. Shivani Yadav is a non-resident research fellow at the America Program of the Sixteenth Council