What Is China Thinking About Trump and the USA?

Since Donald Trump returned to the White House on January 20, 2025, China has been watching carefully, weighing its options, and recalibrating its strategy. Unlike the early days of his first presidency in 2017, Beijing is not caught off guard this time. It understands Trump’s approach to global affairs—his nationalist rhetoric, economic protectionism, and aggressive stance on China—and it is preparing accordingly.

Officially, Beijing has maintained a cautious tone, calling for cooperation and mutual respect. But beneath the surface, China sees Trump’s return as both a challenge and an opportunity. The challenge comes from his expected crackdown on Chinese trade, technology, and influence. The opportunity arises from America’s internal divisions, its shifting global alliances, and the long-term economic realignment happening worldwide.

The Economic Battlefield: Learning from the Past

Trump’s first term saw an unprecedented trade war between the United States and China, marked by steep tariffs, accusations of currency manipulation, and a deepening mistrust between the world’s two largest economies. The 2018 tariffs alone affected over $360 billion worth of Chinese goods, sending shockwaves through global markets. Beijing responded by retaliating with its own tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports, leading to significant losses for American farmers—losses that Trump was forced to offset with billions in subsidies.

China has not forgotten this lesson. It understands that Trump’s economic nationalism will likely return in full force, especially since he has already promised a 10% tariff on all imports. But this time, Beijing is better prepared. Since 2019, it has aggressively pursued self-sufficiency, particularly in key industries like semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and green energy. The goal is clear: to reduce reliance on American technology and exports.

Moreover, China has strengthened economic ties with other regions. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it has deepened its economic reach in Africa, Latin America, and parts of Europe, creating alternative trade routes that could help cushion the impact of Trump’s expected tariffs. Unlike in 2018, when China scrambled to respond to Trump’s trade war, it now has a well-developed counterstrategy in place.

Testing American Power in the Indo-Pacific

China has long viewed American military presence in the Indo-Pacific as a threat, but under Trump, tensions could escalate even further. One of Trump’s defining foreign policy moves in his first term was increasing arms sales to Taiwan, something that Beijing has always considered a red line. In 2020, the U.S. approved a $1.8 billion arms package for Taiwan, drawing sharp criticism from China. Trump also repeatedly challenged Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea, increasing U.S. naval patrols and strengthening alliances with Japan, India, and Australia.

Now, as Trump returns to power, Beijing is likely considering its next move. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has significantly modernized since Trump left office in 2021, and its navy is now the largest in the world by sheer size. It is entirely possible that China will increase military maneuvers around Taiwan to test Trump’s resolve. It may also expand its territorial claims in the South China Sea, as it did in 2012 when it seized the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines without direct military confrontation.

However, Beijing will be careful. It understands that a direct military confrontation with the U.S. would be disastrous, so it will likely adopt the same strategy it used in the past—incremental aggression that pushes boundaries without crossing the line into full-scale conflict.

Exploiting Divisions Within America

China has learned another important lesson from Trump’s first presidency: America is deeply divided, and those divisions can be exploited. During the height of the trade war in 2019, Chinese officials met with business leaders from Wall Street to reassure them that China was not the enemy, subtly driving a wedge between corporate America and Trump’s economic policies.

Beijing may employ a similar strategy now. With Trump pushing aggressive trade restrictions, China could leverage U.S. business lobbies, tech companies, and agricultural groups to create internal opposition to Trump’s policies. By offering economic incentives to these groups, China could weaken Trump’s ability to maintain a unified economic front against Beijing.

Furthermore, China has long invested in soft power strategies, including influencing U.S. universities, media, and think tanks. During the height of Trump’s first term, Chinese state media outlets increased their presence in Western media markets, subtly shaping narratives to make China appear as a responsible global leader while portraying Trump’s America as erratic and self-destructive. If Trump pursues another hardline stance on China, expect Beijing to revive these efforts, amplifying domestic American discontent with his leadership.

The Long Game: Waiting Out Trump

One of China’s greatest advantages over the United States is its ability to think long-term. Unlike the U.S., where political leadership changes every four to eight years, China’s Communist Party operates on a much longer strategic horizon. In 2019, Chinese leaders reportedly told their negotiators to wait out Trump’s presidency, believing that a new administration would reverse many of his policies. And they were right—President Biden immediately rolled back some of Trump’s most aggressive measures, softening the economic war.

Now, as Trump returns, China may adopt a similar approach. Instead of engaging in an all-out confrontation, Beijing could choose strategic patience, making calculated moves but avoiding direct escalation. Chinese leaders know that American foreign policy can shift dramatically, and if they believe Trump is a temporary disruption rather than a long-term trend, they may focus on consolidating power and strengthening global alliances rather than engaging in a costly geopolitical struggle.

Conclusion

While official statements from Beijing may emphasize diplomacy and cooperation, the reality is that China views Trump’s presidency as a major shift that requires a calculated response. Beijing is preparing for economic confrontation, testing U.S. power in Asia, and exploiting America’s internal divisions—all while keeping an eye on the long game. Whether Trump realizes it or not, he is up against an adversary that has learned from the past and is ready for the next round.

Dr. Brian O. Reuben is the Executive Chairman of The Sixteenth Council.