What Does China Really Want in Taiwan?

China’s recent military exercises near Taiwan have sent shockwaves through the international community. With tensions already high between Beijing and Taipei, these exercises serve as a stark warning, highlighting China’s defiance and the potential consequences.

The world watches as China flexes its military might, reminding Taiwan of its commitment to reunification. These drills establish a regular military presence around Taiwan and rehearse the strategy of gradually applying pressure by restricting access to its airspace and waters, leading to increased tensions in the area.

The gravity of the situation becomes clearer when we examine the complex web of international relations. Russia, a key player in global affairs, understands China’s stance on Taiwan, just as China understands Russia’s relationship with Ukraine. These two nations share a bond that goes beyond economic and military ties.

The gravity of the situation becomes clearer when we examine the complex web of international relations. Russia, a key player in global affairs, understands China’s stance on Taiwan, just as China understands Russia’s relationship with Ukraine. These two nations share a bond that goes beyond economic and military ties.

In May 2024, Russia conducted tactical nuclear exercises to enhance the readiness of its non-strategic nuclear forces and safeguard territorial integrity. The drills took place in the Southern Military District, near Ukraine, and involved personnel from missile, aviation, and naval divisions.

Is this a coincidence with what China is doing to Taiwan? The old saying “Show me your friends and I’ll tell you who you are” highlights the special relationship between China and Russia.

These recent military drills near Taiwan have drawn significant notice and provoked responses. In Taiwan, large-scale protests erupted in defiance of both military manoeuvres and political influence from Beijing. Tens of thousands of Taiwanese citizens flooded the streets to express their opposition to legislative changes they view as undermining democracy, backed by China.

Objectives and Extent of the Exercises

China’s military drills around Taiwan have several strategic aims. They assess China’s capability to seize control of the island and maintain a strong presence in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and East China Sea. Additionally, they aim to deter pro-independence activities in Taiwan and discourage interference from external powers, particularly the United States.

The drills involve various branches of China’s military, including the air force, navy, infantry, and rocket force. They take place in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding areas, including the northern, southern, and eastern regions of Taiwan, as well as around Taiwan-controlled islands such as Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin. For example, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently deployed more than 100 military aircraft and over 10 warships to encircle Taiwan, showcasing their ability to potentially isolate the island from external support.

Recent Developments

The most recent exercises in May 2024 coincided with the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te. Lasting several days, these drills involved the encirclement of Taiwan with naval vessels and military aircraft. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence reported the presence of multiple Chinese warships and over 200 sorties by Chinese military aircraft near the island, indicating China’s intention to establish a regular military presence around Taiwan and exert pressure by restricting its airspace and maritime access.

Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, is committed to defending Taiwan’s sovereignty and democratic freedoms. The former mayor of Tainan, Lai, emphasises maintaining regional peace and urges China to stop political and military threats against Taiwan.

China-Taiwan Relations Over Time

The relationship between China and Taiwan has been intricate and tense:

Historical Context: Taiwan came under Chinese control during the Qing dynasty in the 17th century before becoming a Japanese colony in 1895. After World War II, China regained control, but the nationalist government fled to the island, establishing the Republic of China (ROC).

• Political Dynamics: China has considered Taiwan part of its territory since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. However, Taiwan has developed its own democratic governance and increasingly identifies as a separate entity from mainland China.

• Heightened Tensions: Recent years have seen a significant escalation in tensions. China has intensified its military patrols around Taiwan, deploying bombers, fighter jets, and surveillance aircraft.  China opposes support or recognition of Taiwan’s independence and urges countries to cease contact with Taipei. Taiwan has also reported daily cyberattacks from China targeting its government agencies.

• Economic Interdependence: Despite political tensions, Taiwan’s economy relies heavily on trade with China, its largest trading partner. Economic disruptions have occurred due to Beijing’s pressure, prompting Taiwan to seek diversified economic partnerships.

• International Dynamics: The United States maintains a delicate balance, adhering to the One-China policy while providing defensive support to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act. China’s reaction to political exchanges between the US and Taiwan often involves increased military drills and airspace incursions.

• Taiwan’s Diplomatic Relations: Taiwan’s diplomatic relations with other countries are limited due to pressure from China.

• Taiwan’s Exclusion from the United Nations: Taiwan has been excluded from the United Nations since 1971 but seeks opportunities to join UN specialised agencies as a Permanent Observer.

• International Community’s Monitoring and Stability: The international community aims to maintain stability in the region and closely monitors developments between China and Taiwan.

Conclusion

China’s military exercises near Taiwan are part of its ongoing efforts to assert control over the island and discourage moves towards independence. These drills serve as warnings to Taiwan and tests of China’s military capabilities. The status of Taiwan remains contentious, with China aiming for reunification while Taiwan asserts its separate identity and democratic governance. The international community closely monitors these developments, recognising the significant geopolitical implications of the China-Taiwan relationship.

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Aric Jabari is a Fellow of the Sixteenth Council