The Disintegration of the Global Order: How Economic and Geopolitical Shifts are Undermining Multilateralism
The post World War II global order, characterized by a robust framework of multilateral institutions and rules based governance, is facing unprecedented challenges. These challenges are not merely transient but reflect deep structural shifts in the global economy and international politics. Multilateralism, the practice of multiple countries collaborating on global issues, has been the cornerstone of peacebuilding, trade, and development. However, recent economic nationalism, geopolitical rivalries, and institutional weaknesses have raised fundamental questions about the future of this global order.
The Economic Underpinnings of the Shift: From Global Integration to Fragmentation
The shift from a multilateral to a more fragmented global economic system can be traced back to the growing trend of economic nationalism. This transformation is best illustrated by the policies of the United States under the Trump administration, which marked a clear departure from the globalist policies that had been dominant for decades. The implementation of protectionist tariffs, such as the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and the escalating trade war with China, exemplified the prioritization of national economic interests over global cooperation.
The U.S.-China trade war, which started in 2018, is one of the most significant examples of how economic nationalism can undermine multilateral frameworks. The imposition of tariffs, combined with the disruption of supply chains and the threat of further trade barriers, demonstrated the fragility of global trade institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). The WTO, established to regulate international trade and resolve disputes, was rendered ineffective in handling the escalating tensions between these two superpowers. Despite its mandate, the WTO was unable to facilitate a resolution, and instead, trade relations between the U.S. and China deteriorated, leading to a realignment of global trade networks.
Case Study: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Challenge to Multilateralism
A case study that underscores the shift from multilateralism to bilateralism is China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Launched in 2013, the BRI represents China’s strategy to expand its global influence through investments in infrastructure projects across Asia, Africa, and Europe. While the initiative has brought much-needed infrastructure to developing nations, it has also raised concerns about debt dependency, sovereignty, and the erosion of multilateral frameworks.
The BRI bypasses traditional multilateral institutions, such as the World Bank or regional development banks, in favor of direct bilateral agreements between China and participating countries. This has led to a fragmentation of global economic governance, where the influence of traditional institutions is undermined by China’s increasing geopolitical leverage. The lack of transparency and the debt burdens associated with some BRI projects have also led to skepticism regarding the long-term benefits of this initiative, especially for smaller, economically vulnerable nations.
A pertinent example of this is Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port, which was leased to China for 99 years after Sri Lanka struggled to repay Chinese loans. This situation highlights the risks of debt-trap diplomacy and how the bilateral nature of the BRI may undermine the cooperative spirit that multilateralism seeks to foster.
Geopolitical Realignments: A New World of Strategic Rivalries
Geopolitical shifts have also played a huge role in the erosion of multilateralism. The United States, once the dominant leader of the liberal international order, is increasingly focusing on competing with rising powers such as China and Russia. The U.S.-China rivalry, in particular, is reshaping not just the economic landscape but also the global security architecture.
The case of the South China Sea illustrates this geopolitical shift. China’s militarization of artificial islands in disputed waters has not only raised tensions with neighboring Southeast Asian countries but also strained international norms. Despite efforts by the U.S. and other regional powers to challenge China’s claims through multilateral forums such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), China has consistently undermined these efforts, relying instead on its bilateral leverage with individual states. This highlights how the dominance of unilateral actions by major powers can circumvent multilateral channels, thereby diminishing their effectiveness.
Institutional Fracturing: The Decline of Global Governance Structures
The decline of multilateralism is also reflected in the growing dysfunction of international institutions. The United Nations, established in 1945 to ensure global peace and security, has become increasingly paralyzed by the veto power of its five permanent members in the Security Council. The ongoing conflict in Syria and the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia are two stark examples where the UNSC was unable to act decisively due to Russia’s veto power. This inability to address pressing global security concerns underscores a deeper issue: multilateral institutions are often unable to adapt to the changing geopolitical and economic dynamics of the 21st century.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has also faced significant challenges. While the failure to conclude the Doha Round of negotiations highlighted the complexities of achieving consensus among its 164 members, the WTO has continued to play a crucial role in maintaining a rules-based global trade system. It has made progress in other areas, such as the successful negotiation of the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), which aims to simplify customs procedures and reduce trade costs. Moreover, the WTO is actively engaging in discussions on pressing contemporary trade issues like digital commerce and e-commerce, demonstrating its adaptability.
However, the rise of regional trade agreements (RTAs), such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), presents a challenge to the primacy of multilateral institutions in trade governance. While these RTAs address specific regional needs, they complement rather than replace the WTO’s overarching global framework. Despite these challenges, the WTO remains indispensable, providing the structure and legal mechanisms necessary to prevent the fragmentation of global trade and ensure compliance with established rules.
Ultimately, the perceived dysfunction of institutions like the United Nations and the WTO reflects the broader pressures on multilateralism in an era defined by shifting power dynamics and competing national interests. Reforming these institutions to make them more inclusive and responsive to contemporary challenges is essential to restoring their effectiveness and ensuring they remain central to global governance in the 21st century.
The Future of Multilateralism: Paths to Revitalization
While the disintegration of the global order presents significant challenges, there is still potential for multilateralism to adapt and thrive. However, for multilateralism to be revived, several crucial reforms are needed.
1. Reform of International Institutions
Multilateral institutions must be reformed to reflect the current global balance of power. The United Nations Security Council, for example, should expand its permanent membership to include rising powers such as India, Brazil, and African nations. This would provide a more inclusive and representative platform for global decision-making. Similarly, the WTO needs to be restructured to address contemporary global trade challenges, To achieve this, the WTO must restructure its decision-making processes to be more agile and responsive. Currently, the consensus-based model can slow progress on urgent issues. Introducing more flexible mechanisms for decision-making, especially in areas where broad agreement exists, would allow the organization to act more swiftly. Strengthening the WTO’s dispute resolution system and fostering better collaboration with other global institutions would also help it tackle cross-sectoral challenges more effectively. These reforms would ensure that the WTO remains a central pillar in global trade governance, equipped to handle the complexities of the modern global economy.
2.Strengthening Regional Cooperation:
While global institutions have faltered, regional cooperation remains a promising avenue for addressing shared challenges. The European Union’s success in integrating diverse economies and maintaining peace is a model for other regions. By fostering closer regional ties, countries can address issues such as trade imbalances, security concerns, and environmental crises without waiting for global consensus. Regional frameworks, such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and RCEP, offer examples of how regional cooperation can complement global efforts.
3.Addressing Shared Global Challenges:
Multilateralism’s future depends on its ability to tackle issues that transcend national borders. Climate change, global health pandemics, and migration are all challenges that no single nation can address alone. The Paris Agreement on climate change, despite its flaws, represents an example of how countries can come together to address a shared global threat. By focusing on areas of mutual interest, such as addressing climate change, multilateralism can regain its relevance and prove its worth in solving the most pressing issues of our time.
Final Thoughts
The disintegration of the global order is not an inevitability; rather, it is a challenge that demands immediate and thoughtful action. As economic nationalism, geopolitical rivalries, and institutional dysfunction continue to undermine multilateral frameworks, the risks of a fragmented world grow ever more pronounced. Yet, this moment of crisis also presents a profound opportunity for reinvention. The question is not whether multilateralism can survive, but whether it can adapt to the rapidly changing dynamics of the 21st century.
Multilateralism is not merely a relic of the past, but a necessity for addressing the global challenges that no single nation can confront alone be it climate change, pandemics, or the rise of new technologies that cross borders. If the global community fails to come together to reform its institutions, to reinvigorate global cooperation, and to embrace inclusive decision making, we risk an even more fragmented, contentious, and unstable world. A world in which rising powers like China and India, traditional Western powers, and smaller nations act in isolation will inevitably give rise to greater inequality, insecurity, and unpredictability.
The global crises of our time, climate change, economic inequality, migration, and public health offer a unique opportunity to reset multilateralism with renewed vigor and purpose. Through bold reforms of international institutions, stronger regional cooperation, and a relentless focus on shared global interests, multilateralism can be reinvigorated to meet the demands of a new era.
World leaders need to transcend narrow selfinterests and reengage in cooperative governance. The global order is in flux. Multilateralism, if reimagined and reformed, remains our best path forward, a path toward a more secure, prosperous, and equitable world for all.
Maryjane Eze is the Chief of Staff to the Executive Chairman of the Sixteenth Council, and an Executive Assistant at the Africa Economic Summit.
