Israel Attacks Qatar: Implications for US-Gulf Relations:

On September 9th, Israel conducted a targeted airstrike on Hamas’ political leaders in Doha, Qatar which resulted in the deaths of six people, five of which were members of the Hamas negotiating team, and the other being a Qatari officer. Naturally, the Qatari government as well as other governments in the MENA region have issued statements of condemnation against Israeli aggression towards Qatar with fears that unchecked aggression would lead to further destabilisation and insecurity in the region. This attack will have ramifications for not only the balance of power in the region, but also could change the way that the Gulf States conduct diplomatic relations with the US, who have been relatively quiet in regards to Israel’s attack on Qatar beyond statements distancing itself from involvement. Therefore, this article will explore the potential implications the Israeli attack on Qatar would have on US-Gulf States relations. This article will focus on the following implications:

• Damage to US’ Reputation as a Security Guarantor for the Gulf States
• Damage to US-Gulf States Diplomatic Relations 

Damage to US’ Reputation as a Security Guarantor for the Gulf States:

For starters, an implication that is playing out currently is that the Israeli attack on Qatar is damaging the US’ reputation as a reliable security provider among the Gulf States, as the Israeli unchecked military action against Qatar followed by a lack of response from the US can be perceived as the US not prioritising Gulf sovereignty or security. According to Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group “The perception in the Gulf is that at worst is that the US didn’t want to stop Israel and gave it a green light, or at best, that it doesn’t care about the sovereignty of its Gulf allies” (Farouk, 2025 quoted in Christou, 2025). Naturally, this perception indicates that there is now a general feeling among the Gulf States that the US is no longer a reliable security provider and that the US will priortise Israel as a regional partner well before providing security guarantees to the GCC. This sentiment is also expressed by Jesse Marks in his article for Just Security as he explains that the Israeli strikes on Qatar also create the perception that the US has a double standard when it comes to Israel acting with impunity in the region, even if it threatens Gulf security as well as US interests in the region (Marks, 2025). As a result of these developing perceptions among the Gulf States, the argument can be made that the US is losing its credibility as a security provider for these countries as long as it allows Israel to act with no consequences for its actions. 

Naturally, Israel’s attack on Qatar will have numerous consequences for the US’ reputation as a security provider for the Gulf States. One consequence is that the Gulf States could pull away from the US security umbrella to focus more on self-sufficiency and developing their own security apparatus. According to Muhammad Faisal of DAWN, the “…Gulf states must develop defensive capabilities outside the US framework while deepening cooperation with regional partners” (Faisal, 2025). It also should be noted that Faisal mentions that in the short-term “…Chinese or Russian security patronage is neither feasible nor desirable, and even a regional security architecture involving Egypt, Turkey, or Pakistan cannot function without US assent and participation” (Faisal, 2025). This shows that the only way forward for the Gulf States would be to become self-sufficient and develop their own security structures to protect their nations and interests in a period where US security guarantees are no longer credible and alternatives such as Russia and China are not desirable. 

As a result of such action, there is a possibility that the US can lose influence in a region where it was once considered a reliable security and economic partner. This is clear as “With the massive U.S. Al Udeid airbase located in Qatar, Israel’s actions place American officials in an uncomfortable position: tolerate Israeli overreach and risk undermining their own ally, or confront Israel and fracture an already tense relationship. Either outcome serves Israel’s interests and loosens U.S. influence in the Middle East” (Sofos, 2025). In this case, the US would have to show the Gulf States that it is a reliable security provider and potentially utilise its leverage over Israel to restore its reputation as a security provider in the region. 

Damage to US-Gulf States Diplomatic Relations:

Although the Israeli attack on Qatar has the potential to damage the US’ reputation as a reliable security provider for the Gulf States, it can also be argued the US’ diplomatic relationship with these states could also be damaged. In this case, it is important to look at the US-Gulf States diplomatic relations through two aspects the first being the US-Qatar relations in terms of Qatar serving as a regional mediator for the US and the other being the Abraham Accords. 

In regards to the former, the Israeli attack on Qatar damages the US-Qatar relations as it would force Qatar to reevaluate its position as a regional mediator and as a US diplomatic partner. This is clear as Qatar suspended its role in mediation efforts between Israel and Hamas following the attacks, which may threaten Qatar’s position as a negotiator and a safe space for dialogue between warring factions (Crisis24 Middle East Intelligence Team, 2025). This suspension of negotiations and reevaluation could have serious ramifications, as Qatar and the other Gulf States would be less likely to serve as regional mediators on behalf of the US if they are at risk of being attacked by Israel for attempting to promote negotiations and dialogue. According to M. Waqas Haider, “If mediating states are no longer seen as safe hosts, fewer will be willing to take on the role. That leaves the world with fewer neutral venues at a time when conflicts are multiplying and diplomacy is more necessary than ever” (Haider, 2025). If Qatar and the other Gulf States decide to withdraw from serving as mediators on behalf of the US in the MENA region, it could potentially lead to a breakdown in diplomatic ties, which could mean the US would have to search for other regional partners to serve as mediators. However, in this case, it would be unlikely as the US’ regional partners would be reluctant to serve as mediators if it would put them in Israel’s line of fire. Therefore, it can be argued that the Israeli attack on Qatar could damage the US’ diplomatic ties with the Gulf States as they would be reluctant to serve as mediators on the US’ behalf when it comes to conflict resolution between Israel and Hamas. 

While the Gulf States, Qatar specifically, are assessing their relationship with the US in terms of serving as regional mediators, they will also have to reexamine their diplomatic ties with the US through the Abraham Accords following the Israeli attack on Qatar. The Abraham Accords have been used by the US to expand diplomatic ties with the Gulf States and get security guarantees for Israel through normalisation, with the hopes of expanding the accords to include other regional actors such as Saudi Arabia and potentially Syria in the future. The Israeli attack on Qatar will have a damaging effect on the US’ diplomatic ties with the Gulf States as these attacks could force the Gulf States to reverse their willingness to engage diplomatically with the US and Israel through the Abraham Accords as a vessel for regional stability. This is clear as the UAE and Bahrain have stated that Israel’s unchecked aggression towards Qatar undermines existing peace agreements, while Saudi Arabia has reversed their willingness to normalise ties with Israel, which would undermine the US’ ability to be a regional peace broker (Hamzawy et.al, 2025). These views could be a cause for concern for the Trump administration, as President Trump has had an interest in expanding ties with the Gulf States and needs their support for his normalisation plans to succeed in the future. According to Rami G. Khouri of the American University of Beirut “ How Washington handles intensifying Israeli attacks against Arab states, including close partners like Qatar, could therefore shape the future of US and Gulf States relations, which Trump signalled early in his term that he wanted to expand significantly” (Khouri, 2025). One can conclude at least in the short-term, US-Gulf States relations will not completely become undone, however, if the US’ refuses to reign in Israel, there could be a possibility that the Gulf States will have to reexamine their diplomatic ties with the US if a reliable alternative were to make itself available in the long-term, which could put the Abraham Accords in doubt. 

Conclusion:

Conclusively, an argument can be made that the Israeli attack on Qatar could have damaging implications for the relationship between the US and the Gulf States. The Israeli attack on Qatar already damaged the US’ reputation as a reliable security partner for the Gulf States, as the US’ lack of response to the attack showed the Gulf States that US was willing to prioritise Israeli military operations in the MENA region over protecting Gulf security interests and sovereignty. A potential consequence could be that the Gulf States develop a sense of self-sufficiency when it comes to the concept of regional security if it cannot rely on the US to protect its interests or eventually shift their focus on finding a new security guarantor in the long-term. 

Moreover, the Israeli attack also has the potential to damage US-Gulf States diplomatic cooperation and relations, as Gulf States would be reluctant to act as mediators for the US if they are at risk of being attacked by Israel, which could hinder the US’ plan to reassert itself as an honest broker in the region. Beyond the reluctance of the Gulf States serving as mediators on behalf of the US to solve regional conflicts, the future of the Abraham Accords could also be in jeopardy, as the existing signatories (UAE and Bahrain) could freeze or withdraw entirely from the deal and Saudi Arabia could completely reverse its desire to normalise ties with Israel. This would be detrimental to the US’ diplomatic standing with the Gulf States, as they could view the US as an unreliable peace broker and may look to regional or foreign actors to replace the US as an honest broker, hence damaging the US’ efforts to be a diplomatic actor in the region. 

Overall, although the US-Gulf States relationship may not come to an end over the Israeli attack on Qatar, the US’ reputation as a security and diplomatic partner has taken a hit due to its lukewarm response to Israeli aggression in the Gulf. If the US were to maintain its diplomatic and security ties with the Gulf States, the US should exercise its leverage over Israel to ensure that Israeli aggression does not violate the sovereignty and national security of its Gulf partners. Should the US fail to hold Israel to account, the Gulf States could eventually drift away from the US sphere of influence in the MENA region and opt to build their own collective security force or rely on the US’ competitors such as Russia and China in the long-term. 

Sherif Amin is a Fellow at the America Program of the Sixteenth Council