The Fight for Ukraine’s Skies: Navigating Modern Warfare Against Drone Threats
The war in Ukraine has witnessed fierce battles on the ground and relentless aerial confrontations as both sides vie for control of the skies. Amid ongoing Russian assaults, particularly through drones and missile attacks, Ukraine’s defenders are stretched to their limits, relying on ageing Soviet-era anti-aircraft artillery and foreign-supplied equipment. This air struggle has seen modern warfare blend with legacy technology, challenging Ukraine’s resilience and testing the commitment of international allies. The stakes are high, as Ukraine’s ability to maintain air defence directly affects its infrastructure, the safety of its citizens, and, ultimately, its survival.
A Strained Defence Network: Reliance on Soviet-Era Systems
Each night, in the darkened fields surrounding Ukrainian cities, anti-aircraft units prepare for battle against an unyielding barrage of drones. These attacks are frequent, often targeting critical infrastructure such as power plants, city centres, and transport networks. Many of these drones, including Iran-supplied Shahed models, are designed to conduct high-precision strikes, particularly on energy sites, aiming to plunge Ukrainian cities into darkness and cold as winter approaches.
The Ukrainian defence network, however, remains critically dependent on outdated Soviet anti-aircraft artillery. Soviet ZSU-23-4 Shilka systems, initially designed in the 1960s, are mounted on mobile platforms and deployed in defensive positions each night. Soldiers track drones on handheld devices, coordinating with fellow units in neighbouring fields to cover as much airspace as possible. These defensive efforts, however, have limited success; only about 30% of incoming drones and missiles are successfully intercepted, according to recent military reports. The limitations of this equipment highlight the pressing need for modernisation in Ukraine’s air defence capabilities.
The Role of International Aid and Modern Equipment
Ukraine’s defences are heavily supported by foreign-supplied weaponry, primarily from the United States and European countries. Key among these contributions is the American Bradley Fighting Vehicle, which offers greater mobility, protection, and firepower compared to Ukraine’s outdated systems. Despite its significance, the quantity of equipment falls short of demand. Ukrainian military leaders, such as Captain Serhiy of the 117th Brigade stationed in Sumy, underscore that a more comprehensive air defence network, ideally one that is automated and less reliant on manual operation, is essential. The challenge, however, lies in dependence on continued international support—a lifeline that is not guaranteed amid shifting political climates in allied countries.
One of the most vital forms of assistance has come from the United States, whose commitment to Ukraine’s military has included advanced radar systems, anti-aircraft missiles, and artillery. Yet the potential for changes in U.S. foreign policy raises concerns within the Ukrainian command. A halt or reduction in supplies, as feared by Ukrainian officers, could lead to severe operational setbacks. Ukrainian forces are aware of the precariousness of this situation, prompting some units to move discreetly and cover their tracks after each mission to avoid revealing locations or risking further exposure.
Strategic Shifts on the Front Lines
Beyond air defences, Ukraine has also focused on reinforcing ground positions as part of a broader defensive strategy. While the front lines stretch over 1,000 kilometres, involving continuous movements of military vehicles and ambulances, new positions are being established well behind the active battle zones. These fortifications signal a shift in strategy, potentially in anticipation of prolonged engagements and the necessity for fallback lines in case the front line becomes unsustainable.
According to Ukrainian commanders, such as Major Andriy Shapin of the 47th Battalion, morale among troops remains cautiously optimistic, but frustrations run high over the apparent imbalance in resources. Despite the dedication of these units, leaders like Shapin expressed concerns about the limited availability of artillery, munitions, and infantry support, which could jeopardise their ability to sustain the defence effort. For these soldiers, it is not just a matter of defending their nation but also of reinforcing global principles of justice and freedom, ideals they believe are at stake should Russia’s aggression go unchallenged.
The Human Cost of Air Defence Efforts
The relentless drone and missile attacks take a significant human toll, with civilian casualties and extensive property damage becoming common. As cities such as Sumy and Kharkiv are targeted repeatedly, local communities face evacuations, power outages, and disrupted daily lives. Air raid sirens have become an unnerving regularity, alerting citizens to seek shelter while anti-aircraft units engage incoming threats.
In the absence of advanced autonomous systems, Ukrainian soldiers themselves remain the last line of defence, operating manual searchlights to spot drones in the dark skies and firing anti-aircraft rounds amid hazardous conditions. Soldiers often collect spent shells to prevent clues of their positioning from being left behind, all in an effort to maintain operational security and minimise the risks of counterattacks.
International Implications and the Future of Ukraine’s Defence
The conflict has brought renewed attention to the geopolitical alliances and strategic dependencies shaping modern warfare. The dependence on foreign-supplied weaponry poses a strategic vulnerability for Ukraine, especially as some nations grow cautious about deepening involvement. For instance, should the U.S. curtail its support, Ukrainian commanders like General Serhiy Maliuk of the Sumy Defence Regiment argue that their operational capacity would be severely compromised, underscoring the high-stakes nature of international alliances.
The struggle over Ukraine’s skies reflects broader tensions between NATO allies and countries like Iran, which supplies drones to Russia, complicating diplomatic relations across regions. This reliance on advanced yet limited foreign technology points to the necessity for Ukraine to explore avenues for a more self-sustaining defence model.
Conclusion: The Long Road Ahead
Ukraine’s air defence struggle is a testament to the resilience and ingenuity of its armed forces, who operate with whatever resources they can muster. Yet the challenges they face are immense, as evidenced by the frequent drone penetrations and the shortcomings of antiquated anti-aircraft systems against modern threats. Without continued—and perhaps increased—international support, Ukraine’s capacity to protect its infrastructure and population remains precarious.
As winter approaches, bringing additional hardships, the Ukrainian military’s call for better, more automated air defence systems becomes ever more urgent. In this conflict, the skies remain a critical battleground, with control of Ukraine’s airspace holding significant implications not just for the nation’s future but for the stability and security of Europe at large.
Aric Jabari is a Fellow, and the Editorial Director at the Sixteenth Council.
