India-US Relations Under Trump 2.0: A Complex Realignment of Priorities

Donald Trump’s return to the White House marks the beginning of a significant recalibration of India-US relations, shaped by energy dynamics, security cooperation, and shifting global alliances.

The bitterly cold weather during Trump’s inauguration in Washington, DC, mirrored the strain that had characterised India-US ties during President Joe Biden’s tenure.

A subtle warming of relations was symbolised even before Trump’s swearing-in when Eric Garcetti, the American ambassador to India, was abruptly dismissed. For many Indians, Garcetti’s departure was welcomed, largely due to his much-criticised and often embarrassing social media performances, including the missteps on social media.  However, on a strategic level, the decision was a clear indication of Trump’s intent to rebuild ties with India — but only to the extent that it aligns with American interests.

The trajectory of India-US relations under Trump 2.0 will likely be shaped by three pivotal factors: energy, security, and multilateral diplomacy.

Energy is set to remain a cornerstone of India-US relations. Trump’s renewed emphasis on “American energy dominance,” coupled with his economic agenda, suggests a drive to expand US energy exports. His first term championed shale oil and gas production, a strategy later emulated by President Biden to address Europe’s energy crisis. However, Biden’s balancing act between environmental commitments and energy security often fell short, inadvertently benefiting India.

By ignoring US-led calls for sanctions on Russia, India capitalised on the opportunity to become Europe’s largest supplier of refined petroleum products using discounted Russian crude oil.

In contrast, Trump is unlikely to repeat Biden’s mistakes. By boosting domestic energy production, he aims to increase American exports of oil and gas to Europe, as well as the two largest energy markets in the world — India and China. This would not only help reduce the US trade deficit but also enhance America’s strategic leverage in these regions.

For India, the volume of energy imports from the US will be closely tied to how Washington cooperates on other critical issues, such as defence procurement and technology transfers. Trump’s ability to achieve these ambitious export targets will, however, depend on the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Should the war end, Europe may swiftly resume energy imports from Russia, attracted by lower prices for oil, gas, and coal. This would create additional pressure on Trump to secure favourable deals with India and China to offset any reduction in European demand for American energy exports.

The supply of jet engines for India’s Tejas fighter aircraft will be a crucial test of Trump’s willingness to strengthen defence ties with India. The Tejas programme is at the heart of India’s efforts to achieve self-reliance in defence manufacturing. However, the Biden administration’s failure to deliver the promised engines on schedule, citing supply-chain disruptions in South Korea, has strained trust.

For India, this delay reaffirmed a longstanding suspicion about American reliability as a partner. Nonetheless, Trump is expected to resolve this issue and may even push for broader defence cooperation, potentially encouraging India to purchase additional US-made weaponry. While such acquisitions might provoke criticism domestically, they would be necessary to meet immediate security needs until indigenous alternatives become viable.

In return, India would likely press the US to adopt a tougher stance on Pakistan and China. Trump may be limited in his ability to exert significant pressure on China, given his priority to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. However, on Pakistan, Trump could be more accommodating, particularly since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has reduced Pakistan’s strategic importance to American interests.

The evolving dynamics of multilateral forums such as BRICS and the QUAD will also influence India-US relations. Trump is expected to prioritise India’s role in the Indo-Pacific security framework, recognising its importance in countering Chinese influence in the region.

Reports suggest that Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may meet in India this year as part of a QUAD summit, indicating renewed momentum in strategic cooperation. Meanwhile, developments within BRICS, such as the inclusion of Indonesia as a full member and Nigeria as a partner nation, highlight the growing complexity of global alliances that both nations must navigate.

Trump’s second term is likely to bring a renewed focus on strengthening India-US relations, driven by pragmatic considerations in energy, defence, and diplomacy. However, the success of this partnership will depend on how effectively the two nations can balance their respective priorities amidst an increasingly multipolar world.

While opportunities for collaboration abound, challenges — ranging from resolving trade imbalances to managing geopolitical tensions — will test the resilience of this critical bilateral relationship. Ultimately, the contours of India-US ties under Trump 2.0 will reflect the broader currents of global realignments and shared strategic interests.

Riya Kothavale is the Assistant Editorial Director of the Sixteenth Council.