The Race to Harness Quantum Computing’s Mind-Bending Power

Quantum computing, once a theoretical curiosity, has become a focal point of global investment and strategic interest. Unlike conventional computers, these machines process information at the level of individual atoms and particles, offering unprecedented computational power. They have the potential to transform fundamental science, materials engineering, drug discovery, and cybersecurity. Yet, this immense promise also brings serious challenges—chief among them, the threat of rendering current encryption methods obsolete. Governments, industry giants, and research institutions worldwide are now locked in a race to develop and secure quantum computing capabilities. The outcome may shape economic strength, national security, and global influence in the coming decades.

From Laboratory Curiosity to Global Priority  

Quantum computing’s foundations lie in the principles of quantum mechanics. Qubits exploit phenomena such as superposition and entanglement to perform numerous calculations simultaneously. IBM’s research facility in Yorktown Heights, New York, stands among those at the forefront. According to IBM Research (2023), billions of dollars have been invested in quantum development to produce fault-tolerant qubits that outperform today’s classical supercomputers.

Other major technology companies, including Google and Microsoft, are also striving to advance quantum platforms. In 2019, Google announced that its quantum processor, Sycamore, had achieved “quantum supremacy” by solving a complex computational problem in roughly 200 seconds—a feat claimed to be unfeasible for classical supercomputers (Source: Nature, Vol. 574, 2019). Although this claim prompted debate, it highlighted the rapid pace of quantum research. Concurrently, thousands of start-ups, universities, and national laboratories contribute to a burgeoning quantum ecosystem, aiming to integrate practical quantum devices into daily life within the next decade.

The Promise: Revolutionising Science and Industry  

Quantum computing’s greatest appeal is its capacity to model and simulate systems that traditional machines struggle to handle. Classical computers find it exceptionally difficult to simulate complex molecules, as the number of configurations expands exponentially. By contrast, quantum computers inherently follow quantum rules, allowing them to represent complex states more efficiently. This capability could accelerate drug discovery, shorten material development cycles, and advance battery design.

For instance, pharmaceutical research teams anticipate that quantum simulations could swiftly identify promising drug candidates, saving years of trial and error (Source: *Pharmaceutical Research*, Vol. 37, 2020). In materials science, quantum computing might assist in designing advanced catalysts or superconductors. These capabilities extend beyond industry, influencing fundamental physics research and potentially improving climate modelling or renewable energy optimisation.

The Dark Side: Cracking Encryption  

This immense power, however, has a dangerous side. Modern encryption standards, including RSA, rely on the difficulty of factoring large prime numbers—an arduous task for classical computers. A sufficiently advanced quantum machine could employ specialised algorithms, such as Shor’s algorithm, to break these codes efficiently (Source: U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology, 2022).

Banks, governments, and other institutions are acutely aware of this threat. HSBC, one of the world’s largest banks, warns that a quantum-induced encryption breach would be catastrophic, eroding trust in financial systems and potentially destabilising the global economy. Intelligence agencies and defence sectors likewise fear that quantum decryption could expose critical state secrets, unmask covert operatives, and compromise secure networks.

Experts highlight the risk of “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks, in which malicious actors intercept and store encrypted data today, anticipating the arrival of future quantum computers that can decode it. Governments and industries must act swiftly to implement quantum-safe encryption long before adversaries obtain quantum codebreaking capabilities.

A Global Arms Race for Quantum Supremacy  

As quantum technology advances, geopolitical tensions rise. The United States currently leads in quantum hardware development, supported by significant private-sector investment and public funding through initiatives such as the U.S. National Quantum Initiative Act. Enacted in 2018, this legislation commits billions to quantum technologies, aims to strengthen domestic supply chains, and develops a skilled workforce (Source: White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, 2023).

Meanwhile, China has invested over US$15 billion in quantum research, established numerous specialised institutes, and integrated academic, industrial, and military interests. It holds more than half of the world’s patents related to quantum technology (Source: World Intellectual Property Organization, 2021). In 2016, China’s demonstration of a quantum satellite—capable of distributing encryption keys over intercontinental distances—revealed its ambition to build secure global quantum communication networks. The European Union, through its €1 billion Quantum Flagship programme, and nations like Singapore, Japan, and Canada are also vying for a foothold. Although the United States and China dominate, the pursuit of quantum capability is undeniably global.

Securing the Quantum Future  

Addressing quantum security challenges requires proactive measures. Quantum Key Distribution (QKD), for example, transmits encryption keys as single photons through fibre-optic cables or via satellites. Any interception alters the photons’ states, notifying recipients that a key has been compromised. Toshiba and others have already trialled QKD-based systems over existing infrastructure in London, offering a glimpse of a future in quantum-secure communications.

Standards-setting bodies, such as NIST in the United States and ETSI in Europe, are also finalising “post-quantum cryptography” algorithms designed to resist quantum attacks. Broadly adopting these algorithms will safeguard global communications and internet integrity, even in a quantum-enabled future.

Collaboration or Isolation?  

While competition dominates headlines, many scientists and industry experts advocate international collaboration. Historically, breakthroughs in semiconductors and the internet occurred through shared expertise and collective effort. Some argue that restricting quantum research through export controls could stifle innovation and delay discoveries that might benefit all humanity.

Countries like Singapore are exploring smaller, more affordable satellites for quantum communication, seeking commercial viability and broader access. This includes collaborations with European and Chinese companies, reflecting the interplay between competitive tension and cooperative endeavour in the quantum domain.

A Tool for Humanity’s Greatest Challenges  

Quantum supremacy need not produce a zero-sum outcome. The technology’s true value lies in addressing humanity’s toughest problems. Quantum models could refine climate simulations, aiding policymakers in making informed decisions. Quantum-optimised algorithms might stabilise renewable energy grids or streamline global supply chains. In healthcare, more accurate protein-folding simulations and targeted drug design could yield treatments for currently intractable diseases, ultimately improving global health outcomes.

Conclusion

Quantum computing stands at a crossroads of promise and peril. Its evolving capabilities could drive scientific breakthroughs, economic growth, and technological innovation. Yet it also threatens established cryptographic safeguards, stirring concerns over data security and international politics. The intense rivalry between nations like the United States and China highlights how crucial quantum mastery may become.

However, the quantum realm encourages rethinking old paradigms. By establishing global standards for quantum-safe security, maintaining open channels among researchers, and seizing opportunities for international collaboration, it may be possible to ensure these extraordinary machines serve the common good. As the quantum frontier approaches, the choices we make will determine whether we usher in an era of shared progress—or one defined by deepening technological divides.

Aric Jabari is a Fellow, and the Editorial Director at the Sixteenth Council.