Rise of Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN)

In the first round of France’s legislative elections, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) emerged as the frontrunner, securing approximately 33% of the vote. This outcome confirms recent poll predictions and signals growing support for the far right in the country. The RN’s strong performance sets the stage for a closely watched second round.

Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, prominent figures within the RN, expressed gratitude to their voters and promised victory in the second round. They view these results as a crucial step towards forming an alternative government in France that would challenge the existing political establishment.

The initial results from the 30 June 2024 elections are:

– Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party led with 33% of the vote.

– The leftist alliance New Popular Front came in second with almost 28%.

– President Macron’s ruling coalition trailed in third with 20%.

Electoral Process and Second Round

To win one of the 577 seats in the National Assembly in the first round, a candidate must receive more than 50% of the ballots cast and represent at least 25% of registered voters. The high turnout resulted in 80 candidates winning in the first round.

If no candidate achieves the required threshold, the two highest scorers plus anyone else who collected at least 12.5% of total registered voters advance to a second round. The second round is scheduled for 7 July 2024, with an anticipated increase in three-way run-offs (triangulaires) due to the 12.5% threshold and potential higher turnout.

The first-round results have significant implications for the political landscape in France. The far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, has made historic progress by topping the polls. President Emmanuel Macron’s ruling coalition, Ensemble, seems set to lose a significant number of seats.

The consolidation of the electorate behind the three main political forces—National Rally, New Popular Front, and Ensemble—has led to a record number of triangular contests in the second round.

Left-Wing Alliance Calls for Unity

The left-wing alliance secured 28% of the vote, positioning itself as the second most influential force in the election. In response to the RN’s lead, they have called for a united front against the far-right party. To prevent the RN’s victory, the left-wing alliance has pledged to withdraw their candidates in triangular races where the RN holds the lead. This strategic move aims to consolidate support behind the strongest left-wing candidate and ensure a more competitive race against the RN.

The left-wing alliance’s decision to form a united front against the far-right party is driven by their desire to prevent the RN from gaining power. The RN’s anti-immigration stance and their recent victory in the European elections have raised concerns among left-wing parties. They see the need to join forces and consolidate their support to counter the growing influence of the far-right in French politics.

President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap parliamentary elections after the RN’s victory in the European elections has also played a role in the left-wing alliance’s call for unity. Macron’s centrist alliance, Renaissance, slumped to third place in the European elections, further highlighting the need for left-wing parties to unite against the far right.

President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for snap parliamentary elections after the RN’s victory in the European elections has also played a role in the left-wing alliance’s call for unity

Presidential Camp Suffers Defeat and Advocates for Strategy

Gabriel Atal’s presidential camp experienced a significant setback, securing only 20% of the vote. In light of this defeat, the camp advocates for a strategic approach to avoid cohabitation with the extreme right. They propose supporting other candidates who have a higher chance of defeating the RN, with the aim of preventing the far right from gaining significant power and influence.

Divisions Emerge Within the Right-Wing Republicans

The right-wing Republicans, traditionally a strong force in French politics, faced internal divisions during the first round of legislative elections. With only 10% of the vote, the party did not issue voting instructions, highlighting the disagreements within their leadership regarding how to approach the rise of the RN. This fragmentation within the right wing creates further uncertainty in the political landscape.

Political Reactions and Public Opinion

Jordan Bardella, representing the RN, aims for a strong majority in the second round to bring about significant changes. Other parties emphasise the importance of preventing the far right from gaining power and influence in France. Public opinion within France and around the world is closely observing these developments, with many expressing concern over the rise of the far right and its potential impact on the country’s political landscape.

Notable Results Highlight Far-Right Gains

Marine Le Pen and Sébastien Chenu, key figures within the RN, secured substantial support in their respective districts, re-elected with high percentages of the vote. These notable results underscore the significant gains made by the far right in this election cycle, further fuelling debates and discussions surrounding the future direction of French politics.

Public Opinion Criticises Far-Right Gains

The significant gains made by Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) in the first round of the French legislative elections have sparked criticism and concern among public opinion. Critics argue that the far right’s increasing support reflects a shift towards nationalist and populist ideologies, which they believe can undermine democratic values and social cohesion. They express concerns about the potential consequences of a far-right government taking power in France, both domestically and internationally.

Furthermore, some commentators highlight the need for unity among opposing parties to prevent the far right from gaining significant power and influence. They argue that a united front against the RN is crucial to ensure a more competitive race in the second round and to challenge the existing political establishment.

Conclusion

The first round of the French legislative elections has brought about a political shift as Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National takes the lead. With the second round approaching, the focus now turns to the strategies and alliances formed by opposing parties to prevent the far right from gaining significant power. The outcome of these elections will undoubtedly shape the future of French politics and have implications both domestically and internationally.

Aric Jabari is a Fellow at the Sixteenth Council