Between a rock and a hard place – constitutional coups and military takeovers

Elections are ‘not a priority’, said Captain Ibrahim Traore in September during a statement on Burkina state TV. In one
short sentence, the junta leader (in power since a coup in 2022) inadvertently summed up two of Sub-Saharan Africa’s most pressing governance issues. The first, explicit in his remarks, centres around state leaders extending their time in power in clear violation of constitutional mandates. The second hinges upon the fact that a military officer was in the position to make such a call in the first place.

Constitutional coups and military power grabs in Sub-Saharan Africa continue to be major threats towards economic
development. Studies have shown that corruption and autocratic tendencies typically worsen when leaders extend their time in power. There is also evidence indicating that these practices contribute to the erosion of popular faith in democracies, or rather the versions of democracies one is exposed to. Data from Afrobarometer, a polling agency,
suggests that only 38% of respondents expressed satisfaction with democracy. Addressing these governance gaps – or in the case of coups, reversing them – should remain the priority of stakeholders across the continent.

Good things come in threes?

A recent study by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies showed that leaders in 14 countries have recently extended their two term limits after revising the constitution. This is excluding countries where term limits have been removed
altogether. Because of this, Sub-Saharan Africa is now home to some of the longest serving heads of states in the world. For instance, Paul Biya has ruled Cameroon for 44 years, Teodoro Obiang has held power in Equatorial Guinea since 1979 and Denis Sassou-Nguesso has been president of the Republic of Congo for 38 years.

Wiebusch and Murray (2019), in their analysis of presidential term limits, suggest there are four different ways in which African leaders have in the past extended their time in power. These are:
amendments extending the length of presidential terms, e.g. Guinea (2001), Burundi (2018)
revisions to the number of terms a person may hold, e.g. Republic of the Congo (2015)
a reset of term limits, e.g. Zimbabwe (2013), Rwanda (2015)
the removal of term limits, e.g. Gabon (2003), Uganda (2005)

There is an established link between individuals extending their time in power and weaker governance standards. This
notably involves higher degrees of corruption, nepotism, reduced civil liberties and higher rates of conflicts.
The purpose of this piece is not to delve into the psychology and motivations behind leaders extending term limits. But rather to highlight that beyond the desire for self-enrichment, leaders should consider the long term impacts of their decisions on their country. Their leadership also sets the standard for future generations. Several recent academic studies, including Posner and Young (2018), have illustrated how present leaders emulate the behaviour of their predecessor and ultimately, inspire the attitudes of their successors.
In resolving these issues, civil society organisations across the continent continue to play an invaluable role. This is in spite of an increasingly repressive environment. There is little doubt that in Senegal, civil society’s vocal opposition to Macky Sall’s ambiguity about running for a third term next year contributed to his decision to step down. But with other
leaders such as Faustin-Archange Touadera in the Central African Republic on the path to constitutional changes, work remains to be done.

An undesirable alternative

It is – and will remain – difficult to offer sweeping generalisations around the motivations that may push a military officer to forcibly remove an elected leader. The causes of coups are varied, complex and country specific. Yet the inability, or indeed unwillingness, of heads of states to abide by democratic principles enshrined in constitutions has to be considered a driver facilitating coups. Although the pace of recent coups is still below levels observed in the 1960s, there has been a clear resurgence of military interference in domestic politics.

Since 2017, there have been 11 successful military coups on the continent. Five happened in countries where leaders evaded or attempted to evade term limits (Chad, Gabon, Guinea, Sudan and Zimbabwe). The coups did not happen immediately after constitutional changes, indicating other factors are at play. But it would be hard to argue that leaders overextending their stay had no bearing on the takeovers. More worryingly, none of the incoming military leaders have shown any desire to hand power back to civilian authorities any time soon, perhaps emboldened by a show of popular support for change.

Would the Gabonese people have assembled within hours of the coup to celebrate the arrival of General Nguema had the Bongo family not ruled for 56 years? Would the opposition in Guinea have offered support for Alpha Conde had he not broken term limits rule the year prior? Ultimately, we will never know. Popular antagonism against elected leaders can be driven by a number of factors other than poor macro-economic and social performances. But improved governance
standards will undoubtedly help deter further power grabs.

Of course, there are some recent positive cases that cannot be ignored. In both Kenya and Nigeria, newly-elected leaders ascended to the presidency in broadly successful elections. While in Senegal, Macky Sall announced he would contest the vote next year, even if perhaps slightly reluctantly. However, it is imperative that these examples become the norm rather
than the exception.

Byron Cabrol – Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst and a contributor to The Sixteenth Council Insights