Trump’s Second Term: A Turning Point or Trap for African Leaders?
As the United States prepares for a possible second term under Donald Trump, African leaders are contemplating how this administration could reshape U.S.-Africa relations. During Trump’s first term, Africa was not a central focus of Washington’s foreign policy, but with heightened competition from China and Russia on the continent, African leaders are evaluating how his return might influence foreign relations, trade, aid, and security policies.
Re-emergence of “America First” Diplomacy
Trump’s “America First” policy, a hallmark of his international relations approach, suggests a transactional stance towards African nations. This could lead to a focus on economic self-interest, prioritising trade and investment while potentially reducing humanitarian aid. As African and U.S.-based analysts have pointed out, the Trump administration proposed steep cuts to foreign aid during his first term, signalling a shift from traditional humanitarian support to business-centric partnerships. “Trump’s approach was distinctly focused on wealth creation, and we saw that in his dealings with African leaders,” notes Catherine Tshabalala, a policy analyst at the South African Institute of International Affairs.
Given Trump’s economic priorities, African leaders might expect business partnerships, though likely heavily conditioned on returns for U.S. interests. Countries with strong natural resources could attract investment, but leaders may find themselves balancing these opportunities with U.S. demands for alignment on strategic issues, especially in areas of resource extraction and critical minerals.
Countering China’s Expanding Influence
China’s influence in Africa has steadily grown, driven by large infrastructure investments and partnerships with African nations. According to data from the China-Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University, China pledged $50 billion in financial aid to African development at the 2023 African Union summit, funding infrastructure, industry, and technological advancements across the continent. In contrast, the U.S. has taken a less aggressive stance, primarily offering investment through trade initiatives like the Prosper Africa project.
If Trump seeks to counter China’s influence, he may advance U.S. initiatives that mirror China’s Belt and Road Initiative, focusing on infrastructure investments like the recent DRC-to-Angola rail corridor. “The U.S. has been trying to play catch-up with China for years,” says Dr Reuben Chen of the Council on Foreign Relations. “For Trump, the motivation might be less about mutual benefit and more about deterring Chinese influence.” This could mean a new level of transactional diplomacy, with U.S. investments offered as alternatives to Beijing’s, particularly in critical areas such as energy resources and minerals needed for renewable technology.
Russia’s Military and Security Partnerships
Russia’s security partnerships in Africa have expanded as countries in the Sahel turn to Moscow for assistance amid instability. Recent data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) show that Russia increased arms exports to African nations by 10% between 2018 and 2023, forging alliances in countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso. Trump’s ambivalent stance towards Russia in his first term suggests he may not prioritise reducing Moscow’s influence in Africa.
Nevertheless, Trump’s transactional style could mean encouraging African countries to reduce dependency on Russia if the U.S. offers viable security partnerships. African leaders in conflict-prone areas may see the U.S. as an option, but they also value partnerships with Russia due to its readiness to provide military support without political conditions. “For many African leaders, Russia’s appeal lies in its willingness to engage without imposing governance requirements,” explains Amina Karem, an African security analyst based in Nairobi. In this context, Trump may prioritise pragmatic alliances over policy-driven partnerships, potentially leaving Russia’s role in the region unchallenged.
Balancing Human Rights and Pragmatism
Trump’s first term focused less on human rights in U.S.-Africa relations compared to other administrations. Analysts note that the Biden administration prioritised democratic values and human rights, but Trump’s pragmatism favours economic and security issues, sidelining social reforms. “Trump sees diplomacy as a business transaction,” says Professor John Otieno from the University of Nairobi. “Human rights concerns are secondary if considered at all.”
This shift could appeal to certain African governments that view Western criticism of their domestic policies as interference. In this environment, African leaders may find that Trump’s policies allow greater autonomy, while NGOs and civil society organisations may see reduced support for initiatives focused on democratic reforms. Still, this approach could limit U.S. influence in promoting social justice and democratic principles, areas where China and Russia remain non-interventionist, offering African leaders more flexibility in governance.
Economic Opportunities and Trade Relations
During his first term, Trump emphasised economic partnerships, particularly through the Prosper Africa initiative, which sought to increase bilateral trade and investment. The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants duty-free access to U.S. markets for certain goods, is due for review and could see stricter conditions under Trump. “AGOA has been beneficial, but with Trump’s transactional approach, there could be more strings attached,” warns Fatima Dlamini, a trade expert with the African Development Bank.
Trump’s re-election could mean more stringent trade conditions, especially for countries rich in critical minerals. African leaders can expect trade discussions with a stronger emphasis on reciprocity, with potentially reduced access for nations unable to meet U.S. terms. Meanwhile, countries with abundant resources may benefit but must weigh U.S. demands against local development goals.
African Agency in the Global Arena
A second Trump term could also provide African nations with opportunities to assert greater agency on the global stage. Recent data from Afrobarometer surveys indicate that African countries increasingly favour diversified international relations over exclusive alliances. This shift was evident during the Ukraine conflict, where many African countries adopted a neutral stance rather than aligning solely with Western powers. Trump’s pragmatic outlook may create additional space for African leaders to diversify partnerships, pursuing independent foreign policies that cater to their interests without being bound to any single global power.
“Many African countries now see themselves as capable of balancing ties with the West and the East,” says Dr Solomon Eke, an international relations expert from the University of Pretoria. This evolving mindset means African nations could leverage Trump’s reduced focus on governance and social policy to explore diverse partnerships and advance their interests independently. African leaders may aim to build coalitions, forming alliances that reflect their own strategic priorities rather than conforming to Western or Eastern agendas.
Conclusion
For African leaders, a second Trump term presents both opportunities and challenges. His pragmatic, business-first approach may open doors for increased trade and investment but is likely to come with expectations of alignment on U.S. strategic interests. As they navigate these dynamics, African leaders will need to balance U.S. demands with their national interests, leveraging the continent’s newfound agency on the global stage. With China and Russia intensifying their influence, African nations face a complex geopolitical landscape, one in which careful negotiation and assertive diplomacy will be crucial to shaping their futures.
Aric Jabari is a Fellow, and the Editorial Director at the Sixteenth Council.
